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Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/16/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 16, 2016 4:50:50 PM


 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 16th, 2016

 

Just a reminder, we are getting close to futures expiration.  If you hold basis fixed or futures fixed contracts against the March we are only 8 days from the pricing deadline.  We will need to get these contracts either rolled or priced by next Friday.  If you have any questions please give us a call and we will walk through some scenarios with you to help you make the best possible decision for your operation.

 

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/11/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 11, 2016 10:37:24 PM


 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 11th, 2016

 

 

 

Corn:

Export sales were disappointing today, only booking 405 tmt vs the 1 mmt booked this week last year.  Despite the poor sales, fund covered approximately 6,000 contracts of their short position today keeping the range narrow.

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/10/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 10, 2016 3:52:06 PM


 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 10th, 2016

 

 

 

Corn:

High world supplies, low world prices and slowing demand continue to pressure the corn market.  Ethanol production was up to 969 thousand/barrels per day with the grind up also just shy of a million bushels.  But with increased production comes increased stocks.  Ethanol stocks are now starting to challenge the highs from 2012.  Increased stocks and reduced margins are put the pinch on.  Poet has announced 2-day shut downs and shorter receiving hours at 6 of its facilities across Indiana and Ohio.  ADM is looking into options including a potential sale of its dry mill ethanol plants due to poor profitability.

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/9/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 9, 2016 5:08:23 PM


 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 9th, 2016

 

Nothing to surprising came from the USDA report this morning.  Carry outs were increased, pretty much as expected:  Corn from 1.802 to 1.837.  The only surprise really was a decrease in exports 50 million bushels, but they increased corn for ethanol 25 million.  Beans from 440 to 450, and Wheat 941 to 966.

 

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/8/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 8, 2016 11:04:19 PM


 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 8th, 2016

 

 

Was the commodity sell off today pre-report positioning with the next USDA Supply and Demand report due out tomorrow at 11:00 am?

 

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/4/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 4, 2016 6:22:49 PM

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 4th, 2016

 

 

The dollar continues to setback today, down another 80 points to 96.495.  I expect this to retrace another 47 points to 96.010 (or to the levels of 10/22/15).  The question coming forefront in a lot of financial minds is how much is the bad debt weighing down growth?  A lot of the quantitative easing and economic policies to stimulate growth have encouraged companies to acquire debt to grow with low and in some cases negative interest rates.  The question remains to be seen if we have loaned to much to too many.  An article I read today says that China cares a bad debt of $5 trillion dollars.  Lending is also going crazy in Brazil.  Let alone the amount of money that has been loaned in the US since 2008.

 

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/3/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 3, 2016 11:22:47 PM

 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 3rd, 2016

 

 

The story of the day is the US Dollar.  Global currency markets ran into trouble today as investors dumped the dollar amid falling interest rates in the US and continued nervousness about the global economy.  The dollar tumbled against the Euro and the Japanese yen, posting declines not seen in months.  Volatility in the dollar began to spike last Friday when Japan moved to push yields below zero.  “It’s hard to be bullish the dollar when you are afraid that growth will slow” – Peter Gorra, head of FX at BNP Paribas in New York.

 

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/2/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 2, 2016 10:59:00 PM

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 2nd, 2016

 

Well, no shadow today so, the dude is safe for this year.  Here’s to an early spring!

 

 

Corn:

Corn ended higher and near session highs with funds being net buyers.  Some think this is seasonal short covering before a weather market.  The talk out there is an increased corn crop in Brazil, decreased crop in Argentina due to drought.  Ethanol numbers out tomorrow expected to be lower with stocks still higher.  Crude was down again today, many link this to the OPEC countries delay in talking about/implementing production controls as both US and world stocks continue to rise.

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments 2/1/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Feb 1, 2016 11:02:48 PM

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 1st, 2016

 

 

Corn:

A weak session today, mellowed further by short covering from managed money.  This is a seasonal trend to incrementally cover shorts as we get closer to spring.  The latest CFTC report shows the managed money crowd has covered over 70,000 contracts, only to be replaced by active selling in the merchant sector of countries such as Argentina and Brazil.

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Topics: Grain Markets

Grain Market Chatter Closing Comments1/28/2016

Posted by Craig Haugaard on Jan 28, 2016 6:17:39 PM

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 28th, 2016

 

 

Corn:

China, China, China.  They seem to be the only news makers in corn today, and none of it was good.  Actually, the market tends to take all news from China with a bearish tone.  First off they announced a purchase of 1.2 mmt of Corn from Ukrain for Jan/Feb/Mar delivery undercutting US business.  Then, they announced a potential 20% reduction in the reserve corn price bringing it down from $8.30 to $6.15/bu.  This price is edging closer to competing with imported grains, at least within $0.50.

 

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Topics: Grain Markets

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