Closing Comments
Lynn Miller
February 11th, 2016
Corn:
Export sales were disappointing today, only booking 405 tmt vs the 1 mmt booked this week last year. Despite the poor sales, fund covered approximately 6,000 contracts of their short position today keeping the range narrow.
It remains a fact that weak energy prices coupled with large stocks and poor demand keep the downside pressure one, while slow farmer selling and the spec short position are added support.
Technically, all three indicators remain bearish the March futures. We put in a nice outside day today and then couldn’t hold higher close. The stochastics remain in oversold territory without signaling for a buy yet. Support on this move appears to be sitting at $3.58 today. My next sales targets would still be $3.70, 3.75 and $3.82.
Soybeans:
Strong export sales were the name of the game today at 67 tmt above the highest trade guess. No surprise china was the main buyer. A number of cancellations cut into net sales this week and indicates the shifting of business to South America.
Just as in corn large stocks are weighing on the market. And, they are keeping the spread to NC quiet as well. Slow farmer selling in both US and S.America are supportive.
Technically, two of three indicators have turned bullish the March futures. I told you yesterday I thought this market could be in position for a bounce. Now I hope we can see some follow through. We managed to close just over the moving average and today’s price action has brought the stochastics into buy mode. Support continues to sit at $8.52; however we tested the $8.75 mark. My selling targets would remain $8.80, $8.90, $9.00, $9.12 then $9.35 if you really want to reach.
Wheat:
A nice overnight rally was crushed when poor export numbers were released this morning. Total sales were only 263.3 tmt vs 409.3 one year ago.
Egypt is bidding for wheat tonight. After two cancellations, if they finally connect the bid should favor Russian wheat with the US offer $30/mt over the Black Sea offers.
Technically, all three indicators continue to be bearish the Minneapolis March. We managed a trade through the moving average today, but couldn’t manage a close over it. The stochastics ae coming together and are nearing a buy signal. $4.82 continues to be our support line. My price targets remain 5.00, $5.10, $5.20, $5.28 and $5.39.
