Craig’s Closing Comments

February 20, 2015

Yesterday I wrote about the drop in oil production in Libya so it is only fair to give another side of the energy story as well.  That story is that here in the USA the oil stocks continue to grow.  The latest report for the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows US crude stockpiles hit a new record level for the sixth straight week in a row. For the week crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels to a total of 425.6 million barrels. The analysts were looking for an increase more in the 220 million barrel range so this was pretty negative to crude oil prices.  Looking at total gasoline inventories I see that they increased by 500,000 barrels last week and continue to be in the upper end of the five-year average range.

Corn:

Weekly exports and the Farm Forum numbers were the market drivers at play in the market today. 

The Farm Forum took the first shot at projecting 2015/16 carry-out numbers.  You can see their assumptions and projections on the following chart but the bottom line is that they are projecting a 1.687 billion bushels carry-out for that year and a continuation of the low price environment.

Craig’s Closing Comments

February 19, 2015

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

February 18, 2015

Craig’s Closing Comments

February 17, 2015

Craig’s Closing Comments

February 12, 2015

Craig’s Closing Comments

February 10, 2015

Craig’s Closing Grain Market Comments

February 09, 2015

USDA’s February supply/demand report out tomorrow morning at 11:00 am.

            Current Estimates are:       

                        Corn                           1.817 - 2.002 or an avg of 1.879 vs. the current 1.877

                        Beans                        356 - 440 or an avg of 398 vs. the current 410

                        Wheat                        595 - 730 or an avg of 689 vs. the current

As you can see by the numbers, most are not looking for this report to be a real big game changer, but the USDA isn’t very predictable.  Stay tuned.

Craig’s Closing Grain Market Comments

February 05, 2015

As we have seen in recent days, the strength or weakness of the dollar and the price of crude oil can have a significant impact on grain prices.  With that in mind I find it interesting that many traders I talk to are saying they wouldn't be surprised to see crude oil prices trade below the $40 level. Some people in the energy trade believe we may end up with the largest crude oil inventories the USA has seen in the past 80 years. If that turns out to be true one would have to assume that excess supply will start to create storage issues and this in turn could create the climate that will result in the final leg lower in price.

Craig’s Closing Grain Market Comments

February 04, 2015

I feel like we are living a market style Karate kid training session.  Risk On.. Risk Off.

Craig’s Closing Grain Market Comments

February 03, 2015