Craig’s Closing Comments
March 20, 2015
The grain fundamentals were totally unchanged today and without direction from fundamentals the outside markets were the driver of the market today. The U.S. Dollar Index plummeted, down 1.374 at 98.210, and crude oil rallied $1.76 at $45.72 per barrel.
Corn:
The only fresh news we had today was Informa who came out with their latest update for the March 31st Prospective Plantings report today. They are estimating corn at 88.5 million acres, down 2.1 million acres from last year.
The funds were very active today, buying roughly 20,000 contracts. They appear to have been largely driven by the weakness in the dollar and the crude oil strength.
At the present time two of my three technical indicators are bullish both the old and new crop futures.
Soybean:
In the Informa planted acreage estimate which was released today the pegged planted acres at 87.5 million acres, down 547 thousand acres from their January guess, but up 3.8 million acres from 2014.
We did see an increase in farmer selling today and it should be noted that the basis on soybean meal seems to be slipping in many parts of the USA. Finally, I would be remise if I didn’t note that South America continues to offer beans at a discount to what the USA is at. Funds bought about 11,000 contracts during the session.
At the present time two of my three technical indicators are bearish both the old and new crop futures.
Wheat:
I think that wheat was a weather market today. Looking at the weather forecasts for the wheat regions they appear to be mixed at best. A drier pattern in the Plains for the next 10 days and only patchy showers in the 11 to 15 day are forecasted and that had nervous traders buying wheat today. In fact it looks like the funds were buyers of 10,000 contracts during the session.
Informa’s report today estimated all wheat acres planted at 56.0 million acres, 870 thousand acres fewer than last year but 1.1 million more than their January forecast.
At the present time all three of my technical indicators are bullish both the Kansas City and Minneapolis July futures.
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