Closing Comments
Lynn Miller
November 9th, 2015
We basically traded fear today as the front-most topic was the potential negatives to come from tomorrow’s USDA report. Talk of raised interest rates didn’t lend us any support. Then there is better world wheat forecasts, lower crude, lower commodities in general, sharply lower meats, and a lower dollar. Lower was basically our theme.
I’m opting to exclude charts tonight as nothing has really changed. I’m expecting tomorrow’s report to generate some action to give us definition, albeit, it might not be the direction we want.
Corn:
Domestic cash bid remains firm for the time being driven by tight farmer holding. Exports today were 12 million vs. 21 last year. Season to date we are at 218 vs 291 last year. The expectation is that the USDA will lower their export expectations on tomorrow’s report, maybe as far as 75 million bushels. The bull camp; however, feels lower exports now is premature, that the USDA should wait until they get a grasp on the 2016 global supply. The thought process is lower supply could drive demand.
Estimates for tomorrow:
US Crop 13,579 million vs. 13,555 estimated in Oct
Feed/Res. 5,275 million vs. 5,315 last year.
Ethanol 5,250 million vs. 5,209 last year
15/16 US Stocks 1,597 million vs. 1,561 estimated in Oct.
15/16 World Stocks 188.4 mmt vs. 187.8 estimated in Oct.
Technically, all three indicators are once again bearish with today’s lower price action. The door is now open for a move back down to $3.58. The stochastics; however, have entered oversold territory and are waiting for any kind of news. Pricing points now would be $3.73, $3.80 and $3.90.
Soybeans:
Nearby beans were strong in the overnight but gave into pressure from corn as the session wore on, finally ending -1. The strength in the front month is linked to good front-loaded demand. USDA announced 126 mt bean sale to China. Weekly exports were 74 million vs. 91 last year. Year to date we are at 516 vs. 496 last year.
Estimates for tomorrow:
US Crop 3,915 million vs. 3,888 estimated in Oct
15/16 US Stocks 436 million vs. 435 estimated in Oct.
15/16 World Stocks 85.3 mmt vs. 85.1estimated in Oct.
Technically, all two of three indicators continue to be bearish the January futures. The stochastics remain the bullish sign. We touched a triple bottom with Friday’s action at $8.57 which is out main support for now. At the moment my selling points are $9.02, $9.31 and $9.54. Tomorrow’s report will tell us if there is still any hope for +$9.00 futures.
Wheat:
A lower dollar and over-all weakness in the stock market didn’t help wheat today as we ended lower in double digit territory. The last thing wheat needs is talk of better weather in Australia and the FSU. We really need a weather story somewhere to bring the prices up or at least help us maintain. Weekly exports were 10 million vs. 11 last year. Year today we are at 343 vs 414 last year. Just as in corn, many are expecting the export number to be decreased roughly 50 million bushels tomorrow to adjust for loss of business in the first quarter.
Estimates for tomorrow:
15/16 US Stocks 877 million vs. 861 estimated in Oct.
15/16 World Stocks 227.8 mmt vs. 228.5 estimated in Oct.
Technically, all three indicators have swing to the bearish side in the December Minneapolis futures. $4.99 continues to be our main line of support and resistance levels remain the same tonight with my selling targets at $5.35 and $5.58 and on the high side $5.76.
Top Trending Reads:
