Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 5^th, 2015

Corn:

Strength in beans, ideas of fewer US harvested acres, pre-report positioning and some seasonal buying all piled on the market to help corn near recent highs.

Weekly export inspections were not wonderful, coming in at a mere 18.5 million bushels, down from 31.9 last week and well below the 35.0 number from last year.  The boat line up in Brazil is growing, now 98 vessels waiting to load, this is 70 ships more than 1 year ago.

For those trying to make a plan to price binned bushels, the spreads are strengthening again slowly.  If you want to roll December futures you’ll want to keep an eye on these.

Technically all three indicators are once again positive the December corn futures. I’m hoping that the fact we are trading over the 100-day moving average will give us some momentum to maybe climb out of our rut.  Still though, my price objectives have not changed,  $3.80 should hold as support in the short term with selling levels at $3.94, $4.06, $4.18 and at the top end of the range $4.29.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 2^nd, 2015

Informa’s newest yield and production numbers were out today.

                                    Corn:  Yield:  168.4 vs 167.5 last month 

                                    Beans:  Yield:  47.2 vs 47.1 last month

At first glance it looked like bearish numbers with yields on the rise.  Then you look at total production:

Corn - Production: 13,561 vs 13,585 last month

Beans - Production:  3,878 vs 3,935 last month

And it appears that Informa has cut harvested acres in both corn and beans, so even though we have slightly larger yields, with the reduced acres we have numbers that are more neutral to our situation and maybe even slightly bullish if you are reaching for something to trade.

Opening Comments

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 1^st, 2015

Corn:

Light volume session today the drifted slowly higher with higher wheat prices and talk of lower US supply.  Corn harvest expected to be nearly 30% complete. 

Export sales released this morning were 29.5 million, a respectable number considering the trade was looking for 28-35.  Mexico of all places accounted for 85% of the total.  If we delve into the export picture a little bit we will find that the unshipped bushels to the far east (Japan Tawain, S. Korea, Asia excluding China) are at the lowest level since 1986.    This could be concerning as other sources of corn are $10-$25/ton cheaper to import.  On the same note, S. American exports are at a record pace of 3.45mmt last month up from 2.28 in August

We have traded a tight week closing between 3.85 and 3.90 all four days.  With the trade being so tight fisted I wouldn’t expect a lot of action tomorrow unless we come under hedge pressure coming into a harvest weekend.  I look for the market to be paying close attention to the private yield reports next week as we look ahead to the Oct. 9^th Supply & Demand Report.

Technically all three indicators are hanging on to bullish territory vs.December corn.  My price objectives have not changed at $3.94, $4.06, $4.18 and at the top end of the range $4.29. I’m still ok with $4.05 to make a sale on harvest delivered bushels (about $3.35 cash at Craven).

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

September 30^th, 2015

Corn:

Closing unchanged today after Stocks numbers that were ‘as expected.  Trade’s estimate was 1.739 and the number came in at 1.731. Over all for the month of September December corn gained $0.27.  Some reasons could be less S.American acres and hints of less than ideal weather in 2016. But no matter what other pieces you through at it, this market is still supply and demand driven over the long haul.  Continued higher prices will depend on export demand and US useage.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

September 29^th, 2015

Fairly quiet trade today as they position for the USDA September stocks report tomorrow.

Some trade ranges:

                                                    Range                    Avg     USDA Sep 1, 2014

                        Wheat            1.987 – 2.285         2.149                 1.907

                        Corn               1.647 – 1.850         1.739                 1.232

                        Soybeans      0.165 – 0.250         0.205                 0.092

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

September 28^th, 2015

Corn:

First out of the chute this morning was export numbers.  We came in at 32 million bu. Vs. 24 last year.  This afternoon they gave us crop conditions of unchanged at 68% good to excellent.  Harvest continues to progress north, and as it goes the yields are coming in better than expected in areas of IA and Illinois.  Minnesota is coming in as expected so far, which is a feat in its own right considering.

Another thing affecting corn fundamentally:  Pigs.  The US hogs report is showing we have finally fully recovered from the PEDv outbreak last year with pigs/litter now at a record 10.4 and inventory back up to a record 68.4 million head.

Technically all three indicators are currently bullish December corn.  Even today’s sluggish price action managed to stay above the 10-day moving average as we come off of last week’s positive price trend.  We are approaching over bought in the stochastics.  As this is a lagging indicator I’m hoping we can get one more move upward out of this before we see a technical correction.  My price objectives would be $3.96, $4.06, $4.18 and at the top end of the range $4.29.  If you are holding onto old crop bushels and need to price some out to make bin room – I’d be looking for $4.05 on the board to make that sale.  You still have this year’s corn to price should this keep moving higher.

Craig’s Closing Comments

September 24, 2015

Since I have announced that I am leaving I have been contacted by a number of you wondering how to stay on top of the technical indicators that I have been sharing with you the past few years.  You can access the charts with the technical indicators that I use by going to the NCFE home page, http://www.ncfe.coop/Home and then clicking on the chart that is located on the right side of the futures quotes.  If you want more information on how to use these technical tools a good resource can be found at the following location: http://www.amazon.com/CRAIG-TRADING-Haugaard-Trading-Championships%C2%AE-ebook/dp/B00WT2CO7Y

Craig’s Closing Comments

September 23, 2015

I was sad to see that Yogi Berra has passed away.  As a tribute to him the following are some of my favorite Yogi Berra quotes:

1. When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

2. You can observe a lot by just watching.

3. It ain’t over till it’s over

4. It’s like déjà vu all over again.

5. No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.

6. Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical.

7. A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.

8. Always go to other people’s funerals, otherwise they won’t come to yours.

9. We made too many wrong mistakes.

10. I usually take a two-hour nap from one to four.

11. Never answer an anonymous letter.

12. The future ain’t what it used to be.

13. It gets late early out here.

14. Pair up in threes.

15. Even Napoleon had his Watergate.

16. He hits from both sides of the plate. He’s amphibious.

17. It was impossible to get a conversation going, everybody was talking too much.

18. I don’t know (if they were men or women fans running naked across the field). They had bags over their heads.

19. I’m not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did.

20. It ain’t the heat, it’s the humility.

Craig’s Closing Comments

September 22, 2015

It is a crazy world out there.  If the markets aren’t crazy enough for you we can always count on the United Nations.  Earlier this year Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Civil Service had eight executioner positions advertised on their website.  Apparently business has been good and they need extra people to help keep up with all the public beheadings and amputating the hands of convicted thieves.  I know they like to administer lashes to people as well but I don’t know if that was a part of these jobs or if public lashing is done by a different government agency.  Maybe their equivalent of the IRS.  Anyway, the reason I mention this is that the other day the United Nations picked Saudi Arabia to head up the Human Rights Council.  My slow cousin Jimmy probably said it best when he remarked to me last night that, “Awe the cwazy?  This is like naming Bill fweakin Clinton head of the Amewican Abstinence and Celibacy Association.”  Not a bad point.  Just when I think the markets are crazy I don’t have to look too far to see events that make them seem tame.