Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 12^th, 2016

Hip Hip Horray for the USDA… Well not really, but at least they gave us something to trade.  Or if you want to be realistic, they gave the funds a reason to reverse some of the ginormous short positions they hold.  I wouldn’t call this a bullish report, but for the first time in a long time, I would call it producer friendly.  Even though the majority of the wheat numbers were bearish, the trade was so super short we saw good gains in all wheat markets.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 11^th, 2016

Another quiet news day leaves us with nothing new to talk about.  The dollar is still strong enough to keep us out of the world market as other currencies fall comparatively.  World stocks are huge and weather has yet to provide a good story. And, crude oil continues to fall.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 8^th, 2016

Since news is thin at best today, and I get tired of sounding like Pete and Repeat, I’m just going to touch in general on the markets.  Domestic basis levels stay firm as famer selling remains nill.  US stocks were mixed despite higher Chinese stocks.  US jobs report was better than expected (watch out interest rates?).  Dollar was slightly higher with a  good jobs report and crude was mixed as it battles huge supplies vs. mid-east tensions.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 7^th, 2016

I read a snippet yesterday from the Feds meeting notes that hinted they are regretting they chose to raise interest rates. Something about a misinterpretation of the economic data or whatever, but as US stocks fall we may see them veer from the plan they laid out last month and the rise in rates may be slower than expected.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 6^th, 2016

Corn:

Ethanol numbers were out this morning 996 thousand barrels/day.  That’s a weekly grind of 104.58 million bushels; however, stocks are back on the rise and margins continue to be on the defensive.  Export sales out tomorrow with the trade looking for 400-600 mt vs. 705 last week. 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 5^th, 2016

We had a nice rally going in the overnight session in true “Turnaround Tuesday’ fashion as the trade attempted to cover some short’s but the enthusiasm faded after the morning pause and we were only able to hold onto marginal gains. 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

January 4^th, 2016

I was asked this weekend why I have nothing good to say about the markets.  I wish there was something, anything out there to grab to put a positive spin on things.  So I took a look today at what might be a bright spot.  And all I got was that we are poised for a Turn-Around Tuesday tomorrow with all commodities being grossly over-sold.  So let’s hope we get something to make us feel better about what we do.  I suspect most rallies for now will be technically driven, so if you need to make sales be paying attention.  At least until the change they game with the stocks report January 12^th.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

December 31^st, 2015

What would it be to end a year and not have a Top Whatever list.  So, with the help of Advanced Trading, here are the top 4 topics that I feel have had the biggest impact on the grain markets in 2015.

1. El Nino.  Weather is the number 1 factor to volatility in grain markets.  This year it was, and continues to be, a pain.  El Nino gave basically everyone east of the Mississippi River greenhouse weather and record bean yields.  Then left the areas west of Mississippi with excess moisture, prevent plant acres and yield reductions.  Now, she’s playing with South America as we wait and see what kind of moisture they will get the next two weeks.
2. Bird Flu – The Poultry Industry was devastated in Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota. Some of these flocks are just now getting back into production.  This outbreak was hard on the corn market and sent egg and turkey prices soaring.
3. Strength of the US dollar.  Or maybe I should say the lack of strength in all other world currencies.  This is making the Black Sea, and every other country, more competitive than then us on the world stage.  Funny how money talks and bs walks isn’t it.  So much for better product or long standing relationships.
4. South American production.  Just like the US had ideal growing weather, so did Brazil last year leading to once again record corn and bean production.  They had record double-crop yields in corn, while the favorable exchange rate led to a 7% increase in planted acres.  Ample stocks make for stiff competition and SA origin is taking business from the US.

Closing Comments

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

December 30^th, 2015

Corn:

Ethanol production was out today, a pleasant surprise with an increase of 17,000 barrels/day. And ethanol stocks were actually decreased 221k barrels this week.  This is an impressive grind rate, especially considering the stressed margins.  On a downer the EIA unexpectedly increased crude oil inventories by 2.6 million barrels vs. a trade estimated reduction.  Despite the good ethanol news, a light volume day and bad news in the crude department brought corn to new lows today.  Export sales due out tomorrow morning.