Closing Comments

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 16^th, 2015

Corn:

There are a lot of fundamental factors at play in the corn market all of a sudden.  Higher prices earlier this week were supported by slow farmer selling, long liquidation has been linked to concerns of deflation and reduced demand, good harvest weather.  Some feel we are at a point of seasonal support that could help us once this harvest starts to wrap up.  Lower livestock prices and soft ethanol margins offer some price resistance.

Export sales today were good at 598.4 tmt (top end of the trade guess). 

Technically, all three indicators remain bearish December corn.  However, the stochastics have tipped upward in oversold territory.  This may be the leading indicator, but it appears we may see this issue a buy signal early next week.    $3.73 managed to hold as support during todays’ session kind of – we closed at 3.72 ½ so we are close and this isn’t math so we should be good.  The more days we struggle the more intent I am to make a sale at $3.94, it is going to be a tough row to hoe when we get back there so I am still willing to sell it.  I would also be looking at $4.06 and $4.17. 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 15^th, 2015

Point of interest:  Investment money making a return to commodities.  Not only in Corn, Beans & Wheat but also sugar, cotton, coffee and cocoa.  El Nino fears and continued limited prospects in alternative investments have sparked interest for now.  While this interest could fade, it’s been helping support the agricultural sector the past week.

Corn:

Corn continues to struggle against pressure from a harvest that is ticking along relatively uninterrupted.  Weekly export production was down from last week but still above last year.  Ethanol stocks are up from last week and last year while margins remain soft.  Export sales numbers tomorrow.  The trade is looking for 450-650 mt vs. 519 last week.

It may not be a bad idea to be looking forward to 2016 production at this point.  I see the December futures are trading at $4.04 on the close, not so sure a few bushels here wouldn’t be warranted.  If your not ready to make sales, maybe we should be looking at some target levels to try locking in some profits if we can find it.

Technically, all three indicators remain solidly bearish December corn.  The stochastics are now solidly into oversold territory at only 8.59.  $3.73 managed to hold as support during todays’ session.  I’m still of the opinion $3.94 is going to be a tough row to hoe when we get back there so I am still willing to sell it.  I would also be looking at $4.06 and $4.17. 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 14^th, 2015

Corn:

Just a slow, negative day in the corn world as the focus was on crop conditions (68% good to excellent) harvest progress (42% vs. 27% last week and 43% on average) and the updated FSA acres, which gave us nothing new to trade. So, we are focused on large Midwest yields with nothing else to trade.

Weekly ethanol stats will be out tomorrow, export stats to be released on Friday thanks to the holiday.  Values have become cheap enough in Brazil to nearly work into the SE US markets, just need another 10-15 cents.  How weird is that, on a record year we could be importing?

Technically, all three indicators remain solidly bearish December corn.  The stochastics have made a strong run to over-sold territory making me wonder just how much they are willing to take out of this market.  $3.80 did not hold as support today, I’m hoping we’ll see some support around 3.73 now.  We did put in an outside day today, right here at support, so we could see this as a bullish change in trend.  I’m still of the opinion $3.94 is going to be a tough row to hoe when we get there so I am still willing to sell it.  I would also be looking at $4.06 and $4.17. 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 13^th, 2015

Corn:

Not a lot of excitement in the corn market today as we were pulled higher on the coat tails of beans and meal.  This market is conflicted:  bears think US supply is on the rise due to larger crops and smaller demand.  Export sales today supported the theory at a mere 22 million bu vs18 million last week, considerably below the trade guess.  The bulls are insistent most of this bearish data is already priced into the market and that substantial farmer holding will drive prices up after harvest.

Technically, all three indicators remain bearish December corn.  The stochastics are hooking, but it will take another day or two to pull things out trouble.  $3.80 has proved itself to be a pretty solid level of support.  I feel $3.94 is going to a tough row to hoe when we get there so I am still willing to sell it.  I would also be looking at $4.06 and $4.17. 

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 12^th, 2015

Corn:

Today was a pretty slow paced, slightly negative day with no news.  The USDA is closed for the holiday so we won’t see export inspections or crop progress until tomorrow.  Many in the market place are expecting a variety of storage methods to show up this year as they feel the farmer will hold this crop just as long as they can.  The cost to bag corn is approximately $0.20/bushel, quite a bit lower than six months of DP charges.  Of course you will need to know all pros and cons of this type of storage before implementing it.

Technically, all three indicators have turned bearish December corn.  The stochastics are screaming their way down to an oversold signal, hopefully this will be a minor technical correction and we can work our way back up again. We closed right on support of $3.80.  We’ll hope this holds tomorrow.  $3.94 is still a good selling point with $4.06, $4.18 and $4.29 on the high side.

Lynn MillerOctober 12, 2015

Good Morning,

A fairly quiet start to the morning.  Beans +5, Corn -1 ½, Spring Wheat -3 ¼, and Winter Wheat -4 ¼.  The dollars a little weaker this morning and crude managed to stay above support last night so we may see some gains there. 

Corn is seeing a little pressure after the strongest harvest weekend of the year.  Most expecting this crop to be 45% harvested or better this afternoon.  Lack of export news is not helping prices.  Beans remain strongest today with USDA’s smaller crop size on Friday.  Slow planting in parts of Brazil is also a plus.  Looking for this crop to be 65% harvested tonight.  Wheat continues to struggle with an overall strong dollar keeping us uncompetitive in a market that is supply laden.  A Saudi Arabia purchase of 740,000MT of hard wheat in an international import tender Friday may lend some fundamental support. 

Lack of farmer selling at the present is supportive: however, we may see some pressure in the near future as harvest moves forward and space fills up.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 8^th, 2015

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 8^th, 2015

Corn:

Values week all session as the funds were unable to generate any interest into a bullish position coming into tomorrow morning’s report. Overall, the consensus seems to be for a slightly reduced yield plus reduced planted and harvest acres. Some think production could be lowered as much as 100 million bushels.  I don’t think in the bull camp with both feet, but will agree that good numbers could be enough to push over the $4.00 hurdle.  I’m not sure if we can maintain that level during the heat of harvest.

Export sales were slow at 519.7 tmt vs. 785 tmt last week, with commitments running 28% behind last year.  Harvest continues to advance rapidly with another week of wonderful weather in the forecast.

Technically, two of three indicators remain slightly bullish the December corn futures.  The stochastics have issued a sell signal.  $3.94 did not hold today and set us back to support of $3.80.  Selling targets really haven’t changed:  $3.94 is still a good selling point with $4.06, $4.18 and $4.29 on the high side.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 7^th, 2015

Corn:

This market hit a pretty good road block last night as we approached the $4.00 mark.  I believe we are positioning for a rally if the numbers are bullish enough to justify it on Friday morning.  Until 11:00 Friday I believe we are probably in a holding pattern. 

A few things going on fundamentally:

            Weekly ethanol was up 7,000 barrels/day.  Ethanol stocks up 30,000 barrels.

            DDG exports remain booming.

            Harvest seen as 27% complete nationwide.
            Export sales tomorrow expected to be 550 – 750 mt vs. 748 last week.

Looking at this crop you will see variable yields east of the Mississippi and exceptional yields west of the Mississippi.  However, it doesn’t matter where you live of the size of the crop – producer selling is minimal.  And I can tell you that the amount of unsold 2014 bushels still out there will astound you. 

Technically all three indicators remain positive the December corn futures.  Today’s price action has the stochastics now tipped, not quite issuing a sell signal, but staged to do so.  I was surprised that the newly established support of $3.94 held.  I still feel this level is sellable.  Especially considering the futures on this day in 2014 were $3.40 with a harvest basis of -0.90 (Craven bid).  My next targets would be $4.06, $4.18 and at the top end of the range $4.29 from the gap left back on 7/17.

Closing Comments

Lynn Miller

October 6^th, 2015

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Corn:

The focus of the corn market remains the potential reduction in acres from the USDA on Friday, it’s providing opportunity for now.  The fact that the dollar was down and crude managed a rally also helped commodities quite a bit today.

Technically all three indicators remain positive the December corn futures.  With today’s price action we may have started a new support level at $3.94, bu I’m not very hopeful with the stocastichs overbought at 90.12.  I believe we are probably setting up for a technical correction in here, maybe w/ the report Friday?  My price objects continue to hold until we can make a bolder move.  Today’s close of $3.30 cash is good selling point if you need cover bushels destined to go to town and avoid DP charges. My next targets would be $4.06, $4.18 and at the top end of the range $4.29 from the gap left back on 7/17.